Pour les scientifiques comme le professeur van Ypersele, le changement climatique est une réalité, mais l'engagement des gouvernements à diminiuer les émissions de CO2 n'en est pas une. En tant que membre du groupe intergouvernemental sur l'évolution du c

L'Interview: Le climat n'attend pas les négociations - Professeur van Ypersele

Hello, and welcome to The Interview   on EuroparlTV.

Today we're at the University   of Louvain in Belgium.

and to discuss it we have   Professor Jean-Pascal van Ypersele.

He is a climatologist   and also a Vice-Chair of the IPCC.

The IPCC is the Intergovernmental Panel   on Climate Change.

It is the recognised standard   for explaining the current situation.

With days to go before the Copenhagen   summit, climate is on the agenda.

The EU is putting the finishing touches   to its negotiation strategy.

That's what we'll discuss today.   Let's go straight to today's talking point.

Jean-Pascal van Ypersele,   hello and welcome.

The talking point has been the same ever   since climatologists raised the alarm.

and are the forecasts from 15 years ago   being borne out today?

The difference is that   15 years ago it was urgent

and the humans are negotiating   extremely slowly

compared to the need   to protect the climate.

Don't negotiate on climate. Take action.

It's a fact that you can't negotiate   with the laws of physics and of nature.

The climate responds to the disturbances   caused by human activity

under the laws of physics,   chemistry and climatology.

Clearly you can't negotiate   with those laws.

Do you think we have negotiated   too much up to now?

No, I would say   we haven't negotiated enough

because negotiation is the only way   to move things forward.

What would be the alternative?   A world dictator?

We have to make the 180-190 countries   of the United Nations work together

to find a consensus,   however difficult that may be.

I'll stop you there   and we'll move to our next section

which is called:   What is going to change?

Between Kyoto and Copenhagen,   what has changed

and how will Copenhagen bring a new   dynamic to the negotiation process?

At Kyoto we asked developed countries   to cut emissions.

We didn't ask China to cut theirs   at that time.

At Copenhagen a new element is that   the developed countries are insisting

They are asking   the major developing countries,

the emerging countries,   which includes China,

not to cut their emissions,   but to modify their emissions

so that they don't increase as fast   as they have over the last 10 years.

That's a new element of the negotiation.

20% less CO2,   20% more renewable energy,

20% of energy savings   from now until 2020.

In Europe, at any rate...   20-20-20 is the European project.

It is happening in Europe.   Precise legislation is being put in place.

There's even preparation in case   the target moves to -30% for 2020,

which the EU has said will be the target

if the other major developed countries   make similar commitments.

Unfortunately the European Union   is the only group of countries

that has gone so far in preparing   for these targets to be put in place.

Everyone agrees   developing countries need help.

There's talk of 100 billion euros per year.

Where does that amount come from?   What is it based on?

And what's your analysis of this tactic?

Estimates of the cost of the damage   caused by climate change

There are some from   the Convention Secretariat.

The World Bank figures talk about   $100 billion per year in 2020 or 2030

which would allow us   to reduce the amount of damage.

They talk about $400 billion per year   to be spent in developing countries

to reform their economies   so that pollution is reduced.

So 100 billion euros   is a long way from the maximum amount

if you take into account   what is needed for adaptation

and for attenuation   or reduction of emissions.

100 billion euros in relation to the 5 billion   inhabitants of developing countries

That's not a large sum when you know   that for some of these populations

it's their water resources, agriculture   and health that are threatened.

Are the developing countries willing   to participate? Is there real awareness?

I think what has been very clear   for the last few months at least

is the willingness of China, for example,   to take part in climate protection efforts.

A good part of the Chinese recovery plan   is directed towards green technologies.

I think that in a few years   we will be surprised, even in Europe,

by the level of progress in China   towards pollution reduction.

The negotiations are based on   precise calculations

made by climatologists like you,   by the IPCC.

The IPCC puts forward... This faculty   in the University of Louvain

puts forward figures for the real situation.

Do you have the feeling today   that you are being taken seriously

and what are these figures today   in 2009?

Will we still have the 6 degrees at the end   of the century if nothing happens?

It's true that scientists propose   and politicians dispose.

It's obviously not up to scientists   to choose.